Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 365:

Chapter 365: Chapter 52, Kick a man while he’s down

Not only was the London Government devising ways to help the Prussians raise money, but the French were also kept busy. However, they were not busy raising funds, but rather were busy quarreling.

In terms of economic development, Napoleon III could certainly be considered outstanding. For the past decade or so, France’s economy had maintained rapid growth.

This was particularly evident in financial terms; in 1851, France’s fiscal revenue was 1.273 billion francs, and by 1864 it had nearly reached 2 billion francs.

This was without taking into account the results from the Kingdom of Sardinia, or it could increase by several billion more—the wealthiest region of Italy wasn’t just for show.

After joining the French household, the market problem that plagued the capitalists of the Kingdom of Sardinia was finally resolved, and the local economy began to develop rapidly.

With benefits came drawbacks, too—the French capitalists also made their move. Sardinian local capital, being weak, was no match for French capital and could only compete using the advantage of being the local snake.

All these conflicts were concealed under the circumstances of great economic development. After all, with more money earned, even if the competition became crueler, the thickness of the wallet was undeniable.

Nearly 2 billion francs in fiscal revenue, equivalent to almost 80 million British pounds, while at this time the United Kingdom’s fiscal revenue was less than 70 million pounds, resulting in a revenue gap as high as 10 million pounds.

Of course, this did not mean that the economic power of France had already surpassed the British. In this era, the fiscal revenue of countries represented only domestic fiscal revenue and did not account for income from colonies.

Moreover, the allocation of fiscal revenue between the central government and local governments also needed to be considered, as different methods of taxation affected the level of fiscal revenue.

Nevertheless, these data could still prove from one side that France’s economic growth was rapid. Before Napoleon III ascended to the throne, France’s fiscal revenue was lower than that of the United Kingdom, but now it had already managed to surpass it.

With the substantial increase in fiscal revenue, the Paris Government not only got rid of the financial crisis but also had the capability to engage in franc diplomacy.

Having the economic strength to support Prussia and Napoleon III wanting to replace the Russians’ hegemonic status on the European Continent did not equate to the French truly wanting to support Prussia.

Within the French government, there had always been two voices regarding whether or not to support Prussia in this war:

Some advocated aiding the Kingdom of Prussia to deal a heavy blow to the Russians and lay the foundation for France to seize hegemony on the European Continent.

Others advocated sitting back and watching Prussia’s defeat to then seize the opportunity to take over the Rhineland region and increase France’s industrial strength to compensate for the lack in resources.

Of course, both arguments required a Prusso-Russian battle; hence, before the outbreak of war, the French government supported Prussia and even provided an interest-free loan of 50 million francs in advance.

Now that war had broken out, whether to continue support had become the focus of contention between the two parties.

Finance Minister Allen proposed, “The gap in strength between Prusso-Russian forces is too large, even with our support, it would not change the outcome of the war. To continue pouring precious capital into the Prussian Government would be a waste.

Our strategic objective has been achieved now that the Prusso-Russian war has broken out. We don’t need to do anything; just wait to take over the Rhineland region after the war.”

Foreign Minister Abraham objected, “No, now is the time when the Russians are at their weakest. Even if the Kingdom of Prussia’s strength is slightly inferior, they have still assembled an army of more than seven hundred thousand troops.

With the Polish independence movement erupting and tying up a significant number of Russian troops, the Tsarist Government might not have the capacity to defeat the Kingdom of Prussia in one fell swoop.

As long as the war persists, the Russians will be forced to halt domestic reforms because of it.

This is what all European countries want to see, and the Vienna Government will not provide too much support to the Russians at this time. If the war can be dragged out for a year or two, the Tsarist Government will be defeated by its finances in the end.”

Finance was a weak point for the Russians; the reforms under Alexander II were underway, with the social dividends of these reforms not yet reflected in the fiscal revenue.

Due to the heavy financial consumption of the Near East wars, Nicholas I spent his final years in office striving to offset the losses incurred by war, leaving hardly any foundation for Alexander II to support a major conflict.

It was precisely because of this weakness of the Russians that the Junker nobles dared to plan this war. Similarly, it was for this reason that the British supported Prussia.

Finance Minister Allen shook his head and said, “What’s the deal with the Kingdom of Prussia’s seven hundred thousand army? Do I need to say it? At most, only four hundred thousand are combat-ready; the rest are just holding rifles to make up the numbers.

In Europe today, the only countries capable of fielding seven hundred thousand land forces are us, Russia, and Austria. No matter how desperately Prussia mobilizes for war, their national power limits their military strength.

And the Russians, with over a million active troops, can defeat Prussia without even mobilizing.

Setting aside the Russian-Austrian Alliance, as long as the Tsarist Government promises great rewards to Austria, the Vienna Government would offer them loans, after all, these profits would be carved from Prussian flesh.

Austria’s financial strength, though not quite equal to ours, is not far behind and sufficient to support the Russians in defeating Prussia.

Moreover, does the Russian Empire truly have no foundation left? As an established empire, should the Tsarist Government wish, it is still possible to raise as much as over ten billion francs for war funds.

Placing hope on the collapse of Russian finances, I feel, is less realistic than praying for God’s blessing on Prussia to hold out.”

Supporting the Kingdom of Prussia is predicated on their ability to win, or at least to inflict significant damage on the Russians, only then would this investment not go to waste.

If the Kingdom of Prussia were quickly defeated by the Russians, all those investments would be lost. Do not expect a defeated Prussia to have the capacity to repay debts, whether they can maintain their nation depends on the continued support of other countries.

…

With each side presenting its own persuasive argument, the indecisive Napoleon III was plagued with a headache. Both viewpoints were very compelling, making it truly difficult to make a decision.

This argument had gone on for many days before Napoleon III made up his mind.

“Alright, I’ve decided to provide the Kingdom of Prussia with a loan, but they must use the sovereignty of the Rhineland region as collateral to ensure the security of our loan,” he said.

This was a compromise, supporting the Kingdom of Prussia to continue the war, while creating an excuse to snatch the Rhineland region.

If the Prussians won the war, the strategy of dealing a heavy blow to the Russians would be realized, bringing France one step closer to becoming the master of the European Continent. Conversely, if the Kingdom of Prussia were defeated and couldn’t repay the debt, they could simply seize the collateral.

On the surface, this seemed the best of choices, where they wouldn’t lose out regardless of the post-war outcome. In reality, this was just wishful thinking on the part of Napoleon III.

The nations of Europe were unlikely to stand by and watch them succeed. The British did not want to see the birth of a European Continental master, the Russians to fall from the top spot, and a mutual check between France, Austria, and Russia, with none able to gain an overwhelming advantage, was what they wanted to see.

Due to geopolitical relations, even if Franz had no intentions of contending for dominance over the European Continent, he likewise would not allow the French to become the new master.

Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, the Italian States, the German Federation Empire, and the Kingdom of Prussia, all French neighbors, also did not wish to see France grow powerful again.

A common defense treaty against France was the best tool for containment. How could a country, seen as an enemy by its neighbors, become the master of Europe?

Just by strength alone? It seems the French were not that powerful yet. The Russians could use their million-man army to maintain their dominant position, something the French could not match.

What kind of master would one be without any subordinates? Unless they had the power to crush the European Continent, they could only stay indoors and play at being lords.

…

Berlin, Wilhelm I was still unaware of the decisive argument that had just occurred in Paris. The Prussia-Austria War that broke out on the European Continent was entirely different from the Russo-Japanese War in history.

Here, the Russians would definitely not only commit two or three layers of their forces. If only supported by the British, the London Government too would be worn out.

With good luck, a few tens of millions of pounds in support to the Kingdom of Prussia could suffice to achieve the goal, but if the luck was bad, it wouldn’t be surprising to end up paying a price of hundreds of millions of pounds.

Even if it was a loan, it was necessary to consider whether the Kingdom of Prussia could afford to repay. In any case, the London Government simply couldn’t satisfy all of the demands of the Prussians.

Lately, the Berlin Government had made loan requests to almost every European country, understanding that even the smallest mosquito was still meat, and they would not disdain loans from small nations even if they could only provide a few tens of thousands of pounds.

Foreign Minister McKate, frowning, said, “Just this morning, the Swiss Government informed us that they have formally dissolved the joint defense treaty between our two countries, and they will announce it to the outside world tomorrow.

The incident happened so suddenly that the Swiss Government struck unexpectedly, leaving us no time to recover. It looks like they are determined to draw a clear line with us.”

This was clearly not good news. The Prussian-Swiss joint defense treaty was undoubtedly aimed at Austria. Historically, it wasn’t dissolved until 1866, when Austria lost the Prussia-Austria War and had no power to scheme for Swiss territory anymore.

Switzerland’s sudden move to dissolve the joint defense treaty now must have been underhanded. There was no need to guess to know that this was the handiwork of the Vienna Government.

Wilhelm I sighed and said, “Let it be, we can’t afford to care about these minor issues anymore. The urgent matter at hand is still the Prusso-Russian War, our front-line troops have already engaged with the Russians.

The financial aid promised by England and France has not arrived on time. The forthcoming priority for the Foreign Office will be to coordinate with England and France to ensure they fulfill their promises as soon as possible.”

There was no helping it; it seemed that letting down allies was a natural talent for England and France. The London Government had not coordinated with domestic consortia in advance and was still trying to raise money; the French Government, on the other hand, was delayed by bickering over the fundraising progress.

When faced with life and death, the dissolution of the joint defense treaty against Austria by the people of Swiss was not worth mentioning at all.

Wilhelm I fully understood the Swiss Government’s actions. With Prussia playing with fire, it was natural for the Swiss to fear they might get burned too.

If Austria were dragged into the war due to the Russian-Austrian Alliance, wouldn’t they also be pulled into the conflict because of the joint defense treaty?

The status of an eternal neutral country was not easily attained and was only recently recognized by various nations. If they were dragged into the fray, not only could France annex the Kingdom of Sardinia, Austria could also swallow Switzerland.

Switzerland and the Habsburg Family were age-old enemies, true, but the disparity in strength was too great; the Swiss Government simply did not have the courage to wage war against Austria.

When the Vienna Government asked them to dissolve the joint defense treaty, the Swiss Government naturally complied graciously. After all, since the outbreak of the Prusso-Russian War, even if the joint defense treaty existed, it would not serve any purpose.

Understanding was one thing, but Wilhelm I was still very angry about the Swiss Government’s action. However, they simply didn’t have the energy to care about so much; all matters would depend on winning the war. If they lost, all would cease to matter.

Foreign Minister McKate confidently replied, “Rest assured, Your Majesty. England and France won’t watch us lose because of insufficient funds. Now they are delaying only because they fear that we might lose and their investments would go down the drain.

As long as we are not defeated on the battlefield, the aid they promised will be honored, and if necessary, we’ll receive it in installments.”

As a staunch anti-Russian, McKate had always believed that the Russian Empire had become corrupt and only needed a slight push for it to collapse.

The recent outbreak of the Polish uprising, which took the Russians more than two months to suppress without success, only spreading further to the Belarusian region, further solidified McKate’s judgment.

These views were entirely different from Wilhelm I’s, but since war with the Russians was inevitable, it was natural to rely on these confident anti-Russian elements.

If they employed a bunch of Russophobes who dwelled on making compromises with the Russians day and night, how would that war even be fought?