Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 224

Chapter 224: Chapter 111: On the Necessity of Buffering

Translator: 549690339

Berlin

Vienna had made its moves blatantly, with no intention of keeping them a secret, and the Prussian Government naturally received the news.

Frederick William IV was still hesitating about whether to join the interventionist coalition, but now there was no need to consider it any longer. Without figuring out a way to cope, Prussia would become history before the coalition could even be established.

Foreign Minister Andrea analyzed, “Your Majesty, Austria is intimidating us. The division of Prussia among Russia, France, and Austria would bring them no benefits. Once we’re finished, Austria, stuck between Russia and France, would be in an awkward position.

The benefits they could gain from dividing us would absolutely not outweigh those from annexing the South German Region, yet the cost they would pay is much greater.”

That was inevitable. In dividing Prussia, Russia and France could muster only limited forces. The Russians might send two hundred thousand troops, and at most, the French could gather tens of thousands of soldiers. The burden of the main assault would inevitably fall upon Austria.

The Kingdom of Prussia’s military strength was not weak; at this life-and-death juncture, raising an army of five or six hundred thousand was entirely possible.

If it came to a confrontation, even if they could not defeat the allied forces of three countries, dealing significant damage to Austria in a hard-fought battle would be no issue.

After incurring such a massive cost, most of the spoils of war would be divided up by Russia and France. A Prussia without Prussian Poland and the Rhineland region, valued far less than what Austria had already acquired in the South German Region.

Besides, managing the territory would be much more difficult. The Junker aristocracy would not capitulate to Austria, whereas the local populace of the South German Region was welcoming the Royal Army with open arms.

Full of sorrow and indignation, Frederick William IV said, “Theoretically you are correct, but such a threat still exists. If Austria dares to be so overt, it clearly believes we dare not take the risk.”

That wouldn’t be taking a risk, that would be suicide. If Austria attacked Prussia with full force, Russia and France would undoubtedly take advantage of the situation.

Would Austria really do this? No one knew the answer. But Frederick William IV was sure it was Austria’s simplest strategy for breaking the deadlock.

Joseph von Radovich pondered before saying, “Your Majesty, we can toss this dilemma to the British. If they cannot ensure our safety, then we won’t participate in the nine-nation intervention coalition.

The Austrians still need us to check the French. If we go down, they will have to directly face the French threat. As long as we withdraw now, they will back off.”

This choice was an easy one to make; the Prussian Government had joined the intervention force for the sake of interest and could likewise withdraw for interest’s sake.

The Nine Nations Alliance Army appeared mighty, but in reality, only France and Prussia were the main forces. The rest were just making up the numbers. If either Prussia or France balked, the British plan would fail.

Andrea shook his head and said, “Prime Minister, the British probably can’t handle this issue. They might persuade France but can’t sway Russia.

According to Austria’s plan, they’ll wage war on us even before the coalition is officially organized. The British don’t have the capability to rescue us.

The only ones strong enough to help us are the French, but for their own interests, they might prefer to see us fail and then annex our territories west of the Rhine River.”

At this time, we should not place our hopes on the British. History has already proven that their promises are unreliable most of the time.

If we can’t gain sufficient interest from the intervention forces, then allying with Austria to divide the German Region is also a decent choice.

We could simply join the Russian-Austrian Alliance and rebuild the Nordic Three Courts system to jointly rule the European Continent. Neither England and France has the power to stop it.”

Frederick William IV hesitated. Austria’s annexation of the South German Region had aroused everyone’s apprehension, but it hadn’t brought significant direct loss of interest to other major powers. The most affected would be Prussia, whose market had shrunk.

It would be a different story if Prussia annexed the Northern Germany region. Not only would it be a slap in the face to the British but, more problematically, it would cut off the British capitalists’ revenue streams.

In history, when Prussia annexed the Northern Germany region after joining the free trade system, its industry had already advanced significantly and feared no competition from the British.

Now the situation was different. If the Prussian Government dared join the free trade system at this time, the nation’s industry would be doomed before it could even develop.

There was no getting around it; during this era, the Kingdom of Prussia did not possess robust pillar industries and relied on imitating British industry, as indeed did the entire world.

The Prussian Government opposed Austria partly because it was concerned that after taking control of the South German Region, Austria would raise import tariffs on Prussian goods, using administrative means to squeeze them out of the market.

This was not just a possibility but a certainty. For the Kingdom of Prussia, which was industrializing, a lack of a sufficient market meant more than can be articulated.

On the issue of Northern Germany, the London Government simply couldn’t compromise as that would likely lead to Prime Minister George resigning early, potentially with a one-way ticket to heaven thrown in for good measure.

This was one of the reasons why the British wanted to divide Germany. The interests of domestic capitalists had motivated the actions of the London Government.

As for the claim that the British had many colonies and a large market, that was nonsense. At this time, most colonial markets were undeveloped, with the main market still situated on the European Continent.

The risk of overseas trade was much greater than local trade, and which capitalist would complain about making too much money?

By contrast, the South German Region was different. Bavaria was the textile hub of the German Region, and textiles were the largest British export products at this time. The London Government’s allowance for the Kingdom of Bavaria and Austria to leave was perhaps not without intent to eliminate competitors.

Mid-19th-century international politics was no longer solely about politics and military affairs; economic impact increasingly played a major role, especially for economically dominant countries like the United Kingdom.

Austria’s retaliation came as both anticipated and surprising to the British. Initially, the London Government believed Austria would coerce and entice the Prussian Government, but the Vienna government decided to go all out instead.

The effect of this bold move was naturally formidable, and the Prussian Government had already discreetly expressed an attitude—they didn’t dare to proceed with the game.

Reality taught the British that sometimes national interest couldn’t be the sole focus; the personal interests of government elites could also decisively shape national politics.

Once Napoleon III’s position was confirmed, Austria seized the gap within the coalition and launched an unbridled counterattack.

“The situation has changed, the Prussian Government has been intimidated by Austria and is preparing to back out. If we don’t find a way to stop this, I’m afraid it won’t be long before the Nordic Three Courts Alliance re-emerges in Europe,” said Prime Minister George Hamilton-Gordon, gravely.

The Russian-Austrian Alliance has not yet disbanded, and if it turns into a Russian-Austrian-Prussian Alliance, there’s no need to say anything more, they might as well retract their influence and return to The British Isles.

Minister of Internal Affairs Henry thought for a moment and said, “Prime Minister, the Prussians probably haven’t made up their minds yet, otherwise at this time they should have sent troops to annex the Northern Germany region, instead of communicating with us.

We can do nothing about Russia and Austria, but we still have ways to deal with the Prussians. The Royal Navy blocking the North Sea for a month will lead to an economic crisis within the Kingdom of Prussia, and they cannot ignore such consequences.

Even if the Prussians and Austrians join hands to partition the Germany Region, it does not mean that all of Northern Germany will fall to them. I fear many Sub-States will not give them the opportunity to act, they’ll simply go straight into the arms of Austria.

The Prussian Government must have considered this situation carefully, such expansion does not eliminate risk but merely postpones the crisis.

With Russia to the east, France to the west, and Austria to the south, and the remaining side bordered by the sea, the geographical position of the Kingdom of Prussia is simply terrible.

On this point, Austria and Prussia are quite similar, both being squeezed in the center by Russia and France. Austria, at least, can develop towards the Italian Area and the Balkan Peninsula, while the Prussians only have overseas colonization left.

This is probably the reason why Frederick William IV is hesitant to make a decision—without our acquiescence, they can only die in their own home, watching other countries continuously grow and strengthen.”

This is the core reason for the collapse of the Nordic Three Courts Alliance. The alliance cannot bring greater benefits to the Kingdom of Prussia. To industrialize, they cannot do without overseas markets, and they must manage their relationship with the British well.

After hesitating for a moment, George Hamilton-Gordon made a decision: “Tell Thomas, the probing plan has failed, activate the second set of plans.”

This is the most ideal plan, but it is not the only one. The London Government does not think everyone is a fool and naturally has emergency plans prepared.

The British adopted this unreliable plan for a very simple reason: it has low implementation costs and high profits!

If it succeeds, everyone will be happy. If it fails, they have nothing to lose, so why not give it a try?

Have they really failed now?

Obviously not!

The British have driven a wedge between the Russian-Austrian Alliance, further deteriorated Prussian-Austrian relations, irritated the French, and incited Austria’s relations with various European countries.

And what did the British sacrifice? Merely making their Foreign Minister work harder. By containing Austrian strategy, they have completed most of the task.

Due to the worsening of the diplomatic situation, Austria will need to repair international relations for a long time to come, since their annexation of the South German Region this time has touched everyone’s sensitive nerves.

Paris

Since the Prussian Government withdrew from the intervention forces, the British’s plans naturally changed too, and negotiations started up again.

Thomas proposed once more, “Gentlemen, considering the stability of the European Continent, it is essential for great powers to maintain a buffer. I suggest letting Baden, Hanover, Hamburg, Bremen… and other German Sub-States form a new nation.

Taking into account the actual situation, the Kingdom of Prussia can exchange territories with this new state, leaving sufficient buffer spaces between Prussia and France, and between France and Austria.”

The proposal in this meeting was much more reliable, at least that was what Metternich thought. Aside from the Baden Duchy, the British didn’t mention any other Sub-States of South Germany.

To maintain a buffer with the French and to gain everyone’s recognition, sacrificing the Baden Duchy was also a price worth considering in Metternich’s view.

As Metternich was contemplating, the French representative from Auvergne was the first to express support, “Mr. Thomas’ proposal is good; to maintain peace and stability on the European Continent, it is necessary to leave a buffer between great powers.”

The reason is that this is beneficial to everyone’s strategic security. The French do not currently possess the ambition to conquer the world, nor the strength to stand alone against many.

Since they cannot swallow everything, it becomes necessary to avoid conflicts with great powers as much as possible. A stable European Continent is in the interests of both England and France.

If the homeland is unstable, even if one is carving out colonies overseas, one would not feel at ease. Despite the British having repeatedly provoked conflicts among European nations, in reality, they most desire stability in Europe.

Of course, this stability must be built upon a situation where the powers are evenly matched. Clearly, at this time, with mutual restraint among European nations, and no one likely to dominate alone, stabilizing it becomes necessary.

Moreover, this new nation, largely orchestrated by the British, would politically gravitate towards them, increasing their influence on the European Continent.

At the same time, they would also retain their market in the Germany Region, the government could harvest gratitude from capitalists, truly killing several birds with one stone.

Carl-Wassell also seemed eager to try, but seeing Metternich had not made a statement and considering it involved Austrian interests and was explicitly stipulated in the covenant, he couldn’t rashly speak up in support.

It’s no surprise, as the Russians are now strategically focused on moving towards Constantinople, the European Continent being a lesser concern for the moment. A stable Europe is also in their interest.

Metternich gave it some thought and said, “This matter involves the Baden Duchy and the Palatinate province of the Kingdom of Bavaria; we must consider it carefully.”

Seeing that the Austrian representative wasn’t opposed, the Prussian delegate Rothruff couldn’t restrain himself, knowing that if they didn’t contend for their interests now, they’d suffer a huge loss.

“No, the Rhineland region is the Kingdom of Prussia’s most important industrial area, we cannot just give it up like this!”