Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 222

Chapter 222: Chapter 109: None of Them Are Simple

Translator: 549690339

After sending Thomas away, Napoleon III immediately convened a meeting with his think tank, or rather, he convened a meeting with his ministers.

Anyway, it was pretty much the same thing; nepotism was Napoleon III’s consistent style of employment, where his think tank also served as ministers, with no separate Cabinet.

Finance Minister: Count Monier (speculative financier), Army Minister Arno (younger brother and enforcer who also served as an advisor), Minister of Police Mopa (advisor), Home Minister Persigny (chief strategist), Naval Minister Deco (supporter and major shipowner), and his nephew served as the Colonial Minister…

Don’t be fooled by this group of relations; in fact, they performed their tasks rather well, certainly much better than the July Monarchy and by a large margin better than the later Third Republic.

Aside from the defeat in the Prussia and France War, during Napoleon III’s reign, France’s economy developed rapidly and the living standards of the people significantly improved, and the second colonial empire in the world was mostly established during this period.

Army Minister Arno said warily, “Your Majesty, the British are using us as their pawns. Once their plan succeeds, Russia and Austria will both be our enemies, leaving us with very limited options in international politics.

Besides, intervening in Austria isn’t that simple; the multi-nation alliance is more of a nominal alliance in name than in practice.

The nations are scattered all over the world and coordinating relationships and organizing allied forces would be such a massive move that it would be impossible to keep it secret.

The Austrians aren’t fools either; once they get wind of it, all they need to do is one thing—beat the Prussians hard before the allied forces are fully assembled.

Without the Prussians to serve as cannon fodder, this intervention war, unless we commit fully, would fall apart sooner or later due to the disarray among the allied forces.”

Arno spoke from experience; on the battlefield of the Balkan Peninsula, even with just a four-nation alliance, the command system was in utter chaos, and now with a nine-nation alliance, who could lead such a divergent group of allies?

They had experience in betraying allies: in a nine-nation joint operation, not only did they have to guard against the enemy but also watch their eight partners in the alliance, which was simply lethal.

“Catch and beat the Prussians?”

“Arno, do you think the Austrians will catch and beat the Prussians at the earliest opportunity?” Napoleon III asked, interested.

Arno replied, “Yes, Your Majesty. If the nine-nation alliance is formed, even if Austria could defeat the alliance, to avoid isolation, they would still try to avoid war with the allied forces.

But the Austrian Government can’t just concede directly—how would they explain it to their people?

Franz Josef I is at an age filled with youthful vigor and surely cannot tolerate such humiliation; unable to trouble the British, it must feel reasonable for them to vent on the Prussians, right?

To shirk responsibility for this failed action, the Vienna Government will likely support the operation, perfectly directing the public’s anger towards the Prussians. By the time we get our allied forces organized, the Kingdom of Prussia would be nearly finished.

If the Russians also took the opportunity to plunder, then before the arrival of the allied forces, Russia and Austria might just have finished dividing up Prussia.”

As a former underling and enforcer, Arno typically acted rather rashly, and now when analyzing problems, he often maintained this mindset.

Napoleon III was struck by Arno’s analysis. To secure his throne, he would even fight against Russia; it was quite normal for the Vienna Government to beat the Prussians to evade responsibility.

Traitors are always more detestable than enemies; incapacitating or killing Prussia would release the public’s resentment, allowing the Government not only to smoothly overcome the crisis but also possibly gain some additional benefits.

As for the allied intervention forces, if Austria couldn’t prevent nations from sending troops, couldn’t they delay their deployment?

By the time the allied forces were ready, the Prussian Government would have already taken its last breath. As for avenging the Kingdom of Prussia, it was out of the question—who would act without interest?

At least Napoleon III didn’t believe anyone possessed that level of international spirit; at worst, the Austrian Government just toiled for nothing and withdrew from the newly occupied territories.

Persigny added, “Your Majesty, besides attacking the Kingdom of Prussia, Austria might also choose a first strike—to launch a surprise attack on Paris!

With our main force not in the country, the Austrian army has reached the border of Bavaria; they only need to cross Baden to enter our France, and taking advantage of numerical superiority plus the element of surprise, they could very well succeed.”

A surprise attack on Paris was a high-risk, high-reward scheme; if successful, France would fall into chaos, incapable of causing Austria trouble for at least three to five years.

The Russians could seize the opportunity to take Constantinople, deal with the Anglo-French forces on the Crimea Peninsula, forcing the British to retreat to the British Isles, where their navy could at best patrol sporadically, leaving the European Continent free for Russian-Austria Alliance to traverse.

Napoleon III scoffed, “So, from start to finish, the British have been giving us a rotten idea?”

Persigny analyzed, “Your Majesty, this plan aligns most with British interests. Austria’s chances of a successful assault on Paris are too slim; even if Marshal Radetzky himself commanded, the odds wouldn’t exceed twenty percent.

That is even if we’re unprepared. As long as we’re prepared and our front-line troops are on alert, the Austrians can only force their way through.

Our conflict with Austria hasn’t reached the point of life and death; the Vienna Government is unlikely to risk an all-out confrontation with us.

If they can’t seize Paris within a month, our front-line troops will have withdrawn. By then, it would be the Austrians’ turn to be in trouble.

In essence, the British plan’s primary aim is to intimidate; if they can scare the Austrians with the might of the nine-nation alliance, their goal will be achieved.

If they can successfully dismantle the Russian-Austrian Alliance, they would make an even bigger gain. Even if that fails, they’re ready to leave the Kingdom of Bavaria to Austria; in fact, they don’t want to push the Austrians into desperation.”

After hesitating for a moment, Napoleon III made his decision.

“Now that the British have set the stage, how can we not play along? When necessary, we can give the Austrians a hint to encourage them to attack Prussia.

We can each get what we want from this situation. The idea of France, Austria, and Russia dividing up Prussia is something we could accept.”

Of course, it was acceptable. The core regions of the Kingdom of Prussia were in the Rhineland region, right under the noses of the French. If Austria cripples Prussia, they would be the fisherman that reaps the greatest benefits.

Allies? Since when did France and Prussia become allies? If interests align, even allies can be betrayed.

Having left the Palace of Versailles, Thomas then went to visit the Prussian representative, Rothruff.

Aside from the French, the Kingdom of Prussia was also a key link. Without the formidable Prussian involvement, this interventionist alliance would be a joke.

In fact, Thomas was also anxious inside. The events in Bavaria were too terrifying. If the Prussian Army were to be influenced by nationalist ideas and either defect on the field or remain neutral, then the allied forces could only weep.

Luckily, the current plan did not actually intend to start a real fight and had left leeway for Austria; the likelihood of a battle was not great.

The two had no particular friendship and went straight to the point. After Thomas changed his argument and explained the reason for his visit, Rothruff fell into deep thought.

Using the opportunity of intervention by various countries to kick Austria out of the Germany Region was the national strategy of the Kingdom of Prussia.

Rothruff discontentedly said, “Mr. Thomas, why not make Austria spit out the Kingdom of Bavaria? Tolerating their actions, which disrupt European stability, will eventually bring disaster to the world.”

The proposal of the British was exactly what he wanted, except for the unfortunate aspect of Austria walking away with the Kingdom of Bavaria.

After Austria, who else could take on the responsibility of leading Germany if not the Kingdom of Prussia? This was poaching from their territory, and naturally, Rothruff had to oppose it.

Thomas cajolingly replied, “Mr. Rothruff, it’s not that we wish to condone Austria’s illegal actions, but we must consider the Russian-Austrian Alliance. Your country doesn’t wish for Russia and Austria to continue their close ties either!”

The greatest pressure from the Russian-Austria Alliance should be on the Kingdom of Prussia. Perhaps the Prussian Government’s response was somewhat sluggish, or perhaps their long-standing alliance with the Nordic Three Courts caused them to overlook this threat.

In any case, Thomas was full of admiration for the Prussian Government’s apparent nonchalance. If it were them, they would have been sleepless by now, yet the Prussian Government had not embarked on any significant actions.

It was not that they hadn’t taken any actions; they had planned to repair their diplomatic relations with Russia and Austria, but Austria’s sudden initiation of the unification war disrupted the Prussian Government’s plans.

Rothruff’s demeanor showed no change, but his heart pounded with unease. He always felt the British had ulterior motives, and without finding anything amiss, he decided to stall.

“Mr. Thomas, this matter is too complicated. I must report back to my country first and wait for Berlin Government’s decision.”

Although Rothruff was an amateur in diplomacy, being of military background, he believed that pie doesn’t just fall from the sky and that relying on military force was the most reliable course of action.

If he was unsure, then it was best to throw the issue back to the Berlin Government. After all, Wilhelm IV was also an amateur in diplomacy, but he was the king, wasn’t he?

Unable to secure a definitive response, Thomas could only depart, not believing that the Kingdom of Prussia would discover their plan, nor would the French likely leak it to the Prussians.

This was the long-standing impression that the Kingdom of Prussia had given to outsiders; it can be said that prior to Bismarck, the Kingdom of Prussia’s diplomatic methods were quite naive, an inevitable weakness of a military state.

Not wishing to delay any further, Thomas had many more tasks at hand, with numerous countries waiting for him to persuade them. This diplomatic war was destined to be challenging.

The activities of the British were bound to not stay secret. Not all nations were going to keep it confidential for them. Thomas’s frequent contact with various national representatives couldn’t have escaped the notice of Metternich!

Unlike the British offensive, Metternich’s approach was much simpler – spend money. If he could not buy the Foreign Ministers of various countries, could he not bribe their maids and attendants?

Most of the details about who Thomas saw and what he said were conveyed to Metternich’s ears. However, in the world of diplomacy, spreading false information or releasing smokescreens was all too normal—Metternich dared not assume the accuracy of his reports.

Thomas was a seasoned diplomat himself. The information Metternich gathered from different sources was all inconsistent. It meant that Thomas had said different things to different national representatives, some even contradictory, making Metternich’s task of discernment even harder.

Looking at the latest intelligence from the Swiss Delegation, Metternich let out a cold laugh. Encouraging Switzerland to intervene against the Austrian annexation of South Germany was a joke, wasn’t it?

As good neighbors to Austria, the People of Swiss had clashed with the Habsburg dynasty for hundreds of years, and it was only with difficulty that they achieved peace for a few decades. Would they now provoke Austria again on their own initiative?

In any case, Metternich would not believe it. No matter what the British promised, they lacked the capability to prevent Austria from settling scores later on, at least not when it came to Switzerland and Austria’s power over them.

Unable to discern the true intentions of the British, he could only continue to gather information. After all, they had people watching the internal reactions of each country. Should there be agreement to intervene, military mobilizations and strategic resource transportation were always unavoidable.

It was not about which country’s representatives sat in the seats of the intervening nations, but about the actual actions within their countries.

Metternich was not in a hurry. Given his understanding of the British, if they were not causing trouble, that would have been the real issue.

Now that Thomas had begun his actions, Metternich felt even more at ease. Overt conspiracies were always easier to deal with than those hidden in the shadows.