Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 160:

Chapter 160: Chapter 47: Arms Race

Translator: 549690339

The navy’s shipbuilding plan was vetoed by Franz, but the naval budget for 1851 was increased by over one million shied again, soaring to 12.681 million shied.

The Austrian Government’s attitude towards the navy is visible, but no matter how much importance they attached to it, it couldn’t change the fundamental nature of Austria as a land power.

In 1851, army expenses escalated even more quickly, to 61.2462 million shied, and the large reserve strategy was officially launched. According to the plan, from now on, the reserves will increase by 200,000 every year.

The total military budget of the Austrian Empire in 1851 rose by nearly twenty percent compared to 1850, signaling the approaching steps of war.

How could the actions of their neighbor Russia possibly be concealed from the Austrian Government? Not long ago, Nicholas I even levied a war tax under the pretext of expanding into distant territories.

Had it not been for the secret Russian-Austrian pact, everyone might still be incredulous and unable to confirm Russia’s war target. The Austrian Government, knowing the truth, was now ninety-nine percent certain that Russian-Ottoman war was about to break out again.

Under such circumstances, as an ally, the Austrian Government naturally had to keep pace. Without the Russians disrupting the status quo, how could Austria’s strategy be executed?

Thanks to the grand gestures by Russia, the Austrian Government’s increased military expenditure did not cause any ripples. From the outside, this seemed a normal reaction; it’s only prudent to be vigilant with a neighbor like the bear.

European affairs have always been interlinked, and an arms race is contagious. Although neither Russia nor Austria intended to initiate an arms race, others still followed suit.

Governments raised their military spending, the British being an exception—they never participated in army arms races.

Not all countries were in a good financial position; the financially troubled Kingdom of Prussia did not follow this time.

Frederick William IV wasn’t a fool; playing arms race with Russia and Austria would spell doom for the Kingdom of Prussia, which could not afford it. Military expenses already exceeded half of the fiscal revenue; any further increases would lead to bankruptcy.

The also financially troubled French followed suit. Although the French government didn’t have money, private financial consortia did, and they could simply take out loans from banks.

This was the depth of an old empire, with ample financial resources to back it up, and also why France could become the second power to complete industrialization after the United Kingdom.

Belgium completed industrialization almost as soon as the British, but their industrial system was not as comprehensive, with many sectors non-existent.

Although Belgium was one of the first to complete industrialization, they could still not match several powers in industrial strength but had advantages in certain areas.

Vienna

“Your Majesty,” Prime Minister Felix began, “influenced by the Russians preparing for war, except for the financially troubled Kingdom of Prussia which has made no move yet, all European nations have begun to expand their forces and prepare for war.

Just one week ago, with the support of Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte, the French government passed a military expansion act. The French Army grew by fifty thousand. After the expansion is completed, their total military strength will reach 436,000, second only to Russia.

In light of our upcoming strategy, the threat from the French has risen to the first place. We must heighten our vigilance and prepare countermeasures.”

France has always been a traditional land power in Europe, fiercely contending with the Habsburg dynasty for hundreds of years, reaching its peak with the French Army during the Napoleonic Era.

Everyone is highly cautious about the French. After learning about France’s military expansion plan, the Austrian Government immediately convened a Cabinet meeting.

Franz furrowed his brows, knowing that no amount of attention to the threat of the French could be considered an exaggeration.

“How many troops are stationed in France itself?” Franz asked with concern.

The number of French soldiers didn’t really matter, for they also had numerous colonies that always needed garrisoning. The key was to see how many troops they had concentrated on their home soil, as those were the forces that could potentially pose a threat to the Austrian Empire.

Prime Minister Felix replied, “Before the expansion, there were 221,000, after the completion of the expansion, it is not certain, the worst case is that all 271,000 troops will remain on home soil.”

Franz breathed a sigh of relief, once the Russians made a move, England and France would definitely assist the Ottoman Empire, by then the French Army left on home soil obviously wouldn’t be so numerous.

Since the reservist system was in ruins, the French needed some time to expand their army and form combat effectiveness, and this posed an opportunity.

What worried him the most was the French government restoring the reservist system, returning to the Napoleonic Era with the war mobilization mechanism that could enlist a million-strong army at any time, posing the greatest threat.

Apparently, Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte’s capabilities in military affairs were not that impressive. Otherwise, during the Franco-Prussian War, France wouldn’t have only mobilized 220,000 troops and hastily engaged the Prussians in battle, only to be beaten senseless by the enemy’s more than double numerical advantage.

Perhaps because the defeat was too unjust, the French had never been convinced after the war, and with a bit of provocation from the British, France and Germany turned into irreconcilable enemies.

Franz asked uncertainly, “If the French only mobilize so many troops for intervention, we should be able to hold them off, right?”

Professional issues require professional answers.

Franz considered himself to have a decent level of military expertise, mainly in strategy. When it came to specific tactics, leading a battalion-level or smaller unit in battle would probably pose no problem.

Now, for this kind of battle involving hundreds of thousands of troops, it was Marshal Radetzky, the Chief of General Staff, who had more authority to speak. He had personally encountered the peak of the French Army and had firsthand experience.

After thinking, Marshal Radetzky replied, “Your Majesty, the current French Army is no longer as invincible as it was in the Napoleonic Era. After so many years of attrition, they have long lost that aura of invincibility.

If we have an equal number of forces, we can fight a decisive battle with the French.

If we wait until the Kingdom of Bavaria finishes the railway construction and then take military action, we can reach Baden within a week and keep the French out at the national border.”

Having seen the railway network strategy of the Austrian Government, Marshal Radetzky had discovered the tremendous military uses of the railway.

Since railways could be used to transport goods, they could naturally also be used to transport troops and effectively provide logistical support.

The South German Region was not a dragon pool and tiger’s den; Austria had had operations in these regions for many years. Sending in troops would almost equate to a sweep through the area, with nationalists leading the way, these small sub-states would find it difficult to resist.

As long as the speed was fast enough to prevent these small sub-states from colluding with the French, no major changes would occur.

Even without much time, just two to three months to politically settle the leaderships of various countries, the armies of these German Confederation could transform overnight and join with the Austrian army to resist the French invaders.

After gaining the support of the local populations, Austria would stand on an unassailable ground. The France of today was no longer the France of the Napoleonic Era, capable of steamrolling everything in its path.

Army Minister Prince Windischgrätz spoke up, “It’s not just the South German Region; if the French send troops to intervene, it’s also possible they will join forces with the Kingdom of Sardinia in the Lombardy Region, forcing us to fight on two fronts.”

Marshal Radetzky shook his head and said, “It doesn’t matter, let them fight their battles, and we’ll fight ours.

If France dares to send their main forces to the Italian Area, we could simply give up on Italy and march directly on Paris.

In terms of distance, we even have an advantage. I don’t know if we can take Paris, but we can gamble with the French government.

If we lose the bet, at worst we lose Lombardy; if we win, the price the French will have to pay will be far greater.”

Watching the dispute between the two, everyone tacitly refrained from joining in. This was exactly the effect Franz wanted; if there were no conflicts at all between the Army Department and the General Staff, it would be time for him to replace someone.

It has nothing to do with trust; it’s the instinct of imperial balancing techniques.

If his subordinates were in complete accord, they might start to deceive their superiors, and history is no stranger to emperors who have been overshadowed by their own courts.

Similarly, he can’t let his subordinates fight each other too fiercely; if everyone is busy infighting, who will get any work done?

After thinking for a while, Prince Windischgrätz rebutted, “The French aren’t made of paper, how could they be conquered so quickly?

If Paris cannot be taken and the war reaches a stalemate, the French advantage in fighting on home soil will become apparent; they could quickly mobilize tens of thousands of cannon fodder.

These untrained cannon fodder units could rely on morale to compensate for their lack of training when defending their homeland.

Subsequently, constrained by logistics and supplies, we would still have to make a futile retreat, and reclaiming lost Italy would become more difficult.”

Marshal Radetzky, unwilling to show weakness, countered, “Even if we can’t take Paris, we can still severely weaken the French.

If they concentrate their forces to defend Paris, they will have no guards in other areas. If they refuse to compromise, we could pillage and burn our way through, destroying their industrial and commercial systems in the northeastern regions.

I can’t guarantee anything else, but creating a few million homeless refugees to stir and plunder, spreading chaos throughout France, is certainly feasible.

With their own country in such disarray, would they still be able to avoid withdrawing from Italy? Is the Kingdom of Sardinia alone capable of stopping us from reclaiming the Italian Area?”

Indeed, old foxes are tough characters. Should it come to this, the French might not recover for a decade, and relations between Austria and France would sour again, with Austro-French conflict becoming the main international issue of the future.

If Franz had to choose what to do, he would certainly go ahead with it. Since they’re already enemies, what’s the difference between committing halfway and going all out?

If you’re going to make enemies, who cares? Just act submissive to the British and don’t challenge their naval supremacy; Austria’s geographical position means it faces almost zero threat from the sea.

Once France is brought to its knees, the military spirit will emerge. An Austrian Empire unified in the South German Region would be transformed.

Metternich, playing the peacemaker, said with a chuckle, “Gentlemen, let’s not be too hot-tempered. As long as we pick the right moment and create a fait accompli, the French may very well accept it.

They’re not fools; if we commit three or four hundred thousand troops in the South German Region, and they don’t have an equal force, how could they risk intervening?

Moreover, the best route for the French to intervene in our business would be coming through the Rhineland. Would the Kingdom of Prussia dare to grant them passage?

When we make our move, it’s very likely that the Kingdom of Prussia will follow suit. If the French oppose our unification of the South German Region, would they really want to see Prussia unify the North German Region?

They covet the lands of the German Federation west of the Rhine River. A powerful Kingdom of Prussia would not suit their interests.

In the future, in dealing with France, we and Prussia will still be allies.”

Upon hearing Metternich’s explanation, everyone looked pleased. Picking the softer target is the theme of this era; it’s all about bullying the weak and fearing the strong.

The French want things that aren’t in Austrian hands, even if they intervene in the unification of the Germany Region, it’s essentially for their own benefit.

Instead, it is the Kingdom of Prussia that wants to hold onto the territories west of the Rhine River and must fiercely oppose France. Looking for a compromise? Would the nationalists within their borders allow it?

Franz slowly began, “All right, let’s consider the matter with France to be settled. The current issue is the arms race among the nations of Europe, and our good neighbor, the Kingdom of Prussia, can’t keep up anymore.

It seems that the Prussia-Denmark war was not in vain; in the short term, the Kingdom of Prussia will struggle to get out of their predicament, which is also good news for us.

Considering the current situation, Russia is likely to start a war in 1851, at the latest by 1852. Should we consider escalating the arms race?”

Undoubtedly, on the European Continent, the only countries with land forces that could threaten Austria are Russia, France, and Prussia. Now Prussia has fallen into a financial crisis and can’t keep up; if we escalate the arms race now, it will be between Russia, France, and Austria.

Prime Minister Felix bit his lip and said, “Your Majesty, we could bet that after Russia initiates the war, England and France will intervene, and the opportunity to unify the South German Region will emerge.

Escalating the arms race now, eliminating the Kingdom of Prussia from the competition first, means one less rival and a greater chance of success.

If we lose the bet, we can still implement the Balkan strategy at worst, and that won’t be a loss!”

How could it not be a loss? To Prime Minister Felix, diverting from westward expansion into Germany and splitting the Balkan Peninsula always seemed like a losing business deal.

But to gain the support of the Balkan faction, he was prepared to go all out. If the opportunity arose, they would unify the South German Region; if not, they’d have to opportunistically seek gains in the Balkan Peninsula to recoup the losses.

Marshal Radetzky spoke excitedly, “Your Majesty, the risk is worth taking. If we lose, at worst it’s a few tens of millions of shields; if we win, it’s South Germany!”

Indeed, if they lost, it would be at most a few tens of millions of shields in military spending—not a total waste, as it would still enhance military strength.

The Austrian Government isn’t obstinate; if international circumstances are unfavorable and they can’t expand westward, they can still bully the Ottoman Empire to the south to make up for the loss. Even if Russia goes to the Far East to chew on ice, Austria won’t balk at going it alone.

With that in mind, Franz had already made his decision.