Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 157
Chapter 157: Chapter 44: Wonderful Misunderstanding
Translator: 549690339
Since receiving the message passed on by the Prussian Government, the high ranks of the Austrian Government instantly felt uneasy.
Could the British go through with this? There was simply no doubt about it; John Bull’s integrity was only so lofty.
At the last Frankfurt meeting, the British had proposed the dismemberment of the German Federation. Now, in order to implement this plan, applying diplomatic pressure to the Kingdom of Prussia was perfectly normal for them.
Franz was also startled, Indeed, the British had every motivation to do so, as dictated by their national policy—the European balance of strategy.
According to this plan, the German Federation would be turned into one major state and two medium-sized states. This would have sufficient power to prevent France and Russia from further expanding into Central Europe, while ensuring they posed no significant threat to their positions.
Such a European structure—in theory, the most stable—would mean that any expansion by France or Russia into Europe would be resisted by at least two of the states involved, and with Britain’s support, it was a done deal.
Whoever wanted to unify the Germany Region would have to prepare for a showdown with Europe’s major powers alone. Even with Russia’s support, Austria had no chance of success.
It wasn’t that Franz underestimated himself; the scattered small sub-states of Germany were inconsequential when divided, but once unified into one nation, even the most ineffectual could muster an army of three to four hundred thousand.
With the mix of British and French involvement, unless Austria pulled off a partition with the Kingdom of Prussia over this newborn nation, the scenario would be Austria and Russia versus the British, French, Prussian,+ German sub-states, and even possibly other European armies.
Franz had no doubts about the British ability to rally allies. It was likely that Belgium and the Netherlands would join in to prevent the unification of the Germany Region, and Switzerland might even backstab Austria.
Where was the chance of victory? Franz couldn’t see it. Unless the battlefield was in Russian territory, perhaps the winter could freeze the enemy to death.
However apprehensive, the Austrian Government did not show weakness.
The Russian Empire was still a dominant power in Europe, and in everyone’s eyes, the Russians had no issue facing the British and French alone on land; Austria was also capable of handling Prussia and the German Confederation.
They only considered the troublesome geographic position. They feared that Britain and France would ignore Russia and instead pummel Austria, which could be disastrous.
Having confidence was good; at the very least, it showed that the Austrian Empire had not degenerated—the pride of a great nation remained. If the government had shown any weakness upon hearing this news, Franz would have been unable to lead.
Metternich said in anger, “Your Majesty, considering the current situation, we must support the Kingdom of Prussia. As long as they hold on, the British’s sinister intentions cannot prevail.”
Although he had opposed expansion into the German regions before, that was in the past. Since the secret Russian-Austrian treaty was signed, Metternich had gradually shifted his stance.
He knew that Austria could not turn back now; aside from expanding its power and bolstering its own strength as much as possible, there were no other choices. And westward expansion into the German Region was an essential part of this strategy.
Without the population of the South German Region, Austria’s ambitions for expansion, it was estimated, would likely take twenty to thirty years just to assimilate the Balkans.
In such a long time, who knows how much the strengths of other nations would have grown? In this era of survival of the fittest, once you fall behind, it means danger is swiftly approaching.
Prime Minister Felix thought for a moment before saying, “This news was released by the Prussian Government; they probably do not wish to compromise either.
Mr. Metternich, considering your familiarity with the Kingdom of Prussia, if we now propose to jointly partition the German Region, how likely is it that they will agree?”
Metternich analyzed, “It depends on how the partition is handled, but I estimate it would be very difficult to reach a consensus.
The Prussian military’s radical faction suffered a blow from the failure of the Prussia-Denmark War, but they still wield substantial influence over the government.
According to the original plan, we would annex the South German Region, and for the North Germany Region, we would take as much as we could. Even if we now concede, at most we would give up North Germany.
Such benefits might not suffice to satiate the radical faction of the Prussian military. However, many in the Prussian government should be satisfied—not everyone is so ambitious.
If the pressure exerted by the British is too great, it’s possible that some in the Prussian government will coerce Frederick William IV to compromise with us.”
The relationship between Prussia and Austria was still tolerable; underhanded tactics were confined to the shadows, and publicly the façade of cooperation remained intact on many issues.
Following the British plan, the Kingdom of Prussia would almost gain nothing, being ousted from the German Federation.
But if they joined hands with the Austrian Government to partition the German Region, they could gain the prosperous territories of North Germany and increase the Prussian population by half.
These gains would also enable the Kingdom of Prussia to advance further among the great powers, no longer stuck in its current awkward position.
Franz thought for a moment and then said, “Let’s first secretly contact the Prussian Government; they are still unaware of the Prusso-Russian secret treaty.
Even if the news of the partition of the German Region gets leaked, as long as we staunchly deny it, Britain and France can’t do much to us.”
Archduke Louis suggested, “Your Majesty, if we do something now, say, use the British to knock the Kingdom of Prussia out of the game, wouldn’t that be more beneficial for us?”
Why share when one can have the feast all to oneself?
If Britain and France join forces, Austria plays dirty, and with the treacherous Bavaria, the Kingdom of Prussia might indeed succumb to the pressure.
This time, the Russians would certainly not support Prussia; there was no other reason than the vengeful memory of His Majesty the Tsarist.
In the nature of Russian bureaucrats to ingratiate themselves with flattery, most likely they would first accomplish the deed and then report the victory to Nicholas I.
The exact situation was reflected by the last Christmas offering; the Russian delegate forced the Prussian Government to withdraw their troops before Christmas.
Having the feast to oneself was certainly appealing, provided that one was prepared for a stab in the back from the Kingdom of Prussia. If it were possible to suppress Prussia, it was certainly a viable option.
As long as the Austrian Empire could become just a bit mightier, and the Russian Empire had not truly decayed, Franz wouldn’t mind monopolizing the situation.
Franz shook his head and said, “It’s not that easy. At such a critical moment, one more friend is better than one more enemy.”
After the annexation of the South German Region, our strategic goals have been achieved. Giving up on the North German Confederation is also giving up.”
Being too greedy can lead to choking. Our trump card is the secret Prussia-Austria agreement, but the Russians might not be so reliable.
Should they fail to commit to their work and fail to keep the Kingdom of Prussia in check, we will be fighting a war on two fronts.”
Under normal circumstances, the Prussian Government would not agree to Austria’s distribution plan, but once the news of the secret Prussia-Austria pact comes to light, the Prussian Government will surely compromise.
This is reality, even if England and France make many promises, they are of no use.
What can the Kingdom of Prussia do when it lies too close to the Prussian-Austrian pact. If they dare to mix up with England and France, they probably won’t wait for the support of the British and French forces before their early curtain call.
The Nordic Three Courts Alliance is essentially determined by geopolitics. With Austria and Russia joining hands, the Kingdom of Prussia, not wanting to fall into a dangerous situation, can only join this alliance.
Otherwise, after the secret Prussia-Austria pact was formed, Nicholas I’s first reaction would not have been to pull the Kingdom of Prussia into the alliance; it’s not about everyone having a good relationship, but rather the likelihood of the Kingdom of Prussia joining is very high.
Due to the Prussia-Denmark War, the Tsarist Government had to temporarily abandon this enticing plan, as the Russians were still worried that the Prussian Government would leak the news.
If they can’t catch England and France off guard, the strategy of the Russians would be hard-pressed to succeed. Should England and France provide support, the Ottoman Empire’s potential combat power is also not to be underestimated.
This is also key to the success of the Austrian Government’s westward strategy, after all, they acted following the Russians. Only when England and France teamed up and began their PK with the Russians did Austria make its move.
Thanks to the Vienna System, French military strength has been significantly weakened. Now they have plenty of troops, but their mobilization mechanism has already broken down.
In order to avoid suppression by European countries, Emperor Philip kept very few army troops at home, let alone reserve a large amount of reserve forces.
The active French army numbers just over three hundred thousand, and once they send out a hundred thousand to fight against the Russians, they won’t have much left to intervene in the Austrian forces.
Quantity can lead to a qualitative change. As long as Austria prepares adequately and mobilizes enough troops, if the French intervene, they can be directly beaten back.
If the French lose once, they are basically done for. By then, Napoleon III will be too busy putting out fires at home to worry about Austria.
As for the Kingdom of Prussia, Franz plans to place half a million troops on the Prussia-Austria Border once he begins his actions and lure the Russians with strategic supplies to concentrate their eastern forces on the Prusso-Russian Border.
Were Austria to go it alone, the Kingdom of Prussia might take a military gamble and go all-in. But now Franz has left them a piece of the pie, and the Prussian Government can only compromise.
Everyone has their own enterprises, and the Prussian Government is not controlled by naïve teenagers; how could they possibly take a blind risk?
Even the Radical faction would likely choose to devour the Northern Germany Region first. As long as this bait is taken, the Kingdom of Prussia will have to stop and digest the fruits of victory.
The Prussian Government, which was already inclined to ally with Austria, naturally would not reject the olive branch offered by the Austrian Government.
It has been proven that the Austrian Government’s judgment of the Kingdom of Prussia was wrong. After the defeat in the Prussia-Denmark War, many within the Prussian Government lost confidence in the strategy of unifying Germany.
This is the sorrow of small states that cannot afford failure. After a failure, everyone’s confidence disappears.
As soon as the armistice between Prussia and Denmark was signed, all the internal contradictions of the Kingdom of Prussia exploded, and the Revolutionaries once again staged an uprising which was quickly suppressed by the army.
Against this backdrop, Frederick William IV was too busy consolidating his power to even think about the strategic plan of unifying Germany, which had been cast aside.
Historically, after the Kingdom of Prussia’s plans were thwarted, it fell into a slump as well. It wasn’t until the Chancellor of Iron and Blood took the stage, won the Second Danish War through a series of alliances and clever tactics, that morale was restored.
Under Bismarck’s efforts, the Prussians gathered the courage to challenge Austria and, after winning the Austro-Prussian War, the Prussian Army completed its transformation.
Many experts believe that after winning the war, the Prussian Government spared Austria as a diplomatic move, to avoid Austria stabbing them in the back during the future Prussia and France war.
And Bismarck feared that annexing Austria would lead to an increase in Catholics in the new German Empire, sparking domestic religious conflict.
But Franz didn’t see it that way; even if they couldn’t annex Austria, couldn’t they demand territorial concessions and indemnities?
Historically, after the Prussia-Austria war, Austria lost the war, and the main loss was reflected politically. In reality, the price paid was not great.
Being in the era, Franz knew just how bad the financial situation of the Kingdom of Prussia was. Considering the circumstances of the time, Austria wasn’t without the power to fight another battle.
After the battle was lost, Austria’s reserve forces were almost fully mobilized. If the Kingdom of Prussia didn’t know when to stop, it would turn into a war of attrition.
Seeing the thin wallet, Bismarck naturally chose to take the win and stop there.
Interests have to be fought for with strength, and since Austria’s power remained intact, naturally, the price they had to pay was not significant.
If the Austrian Government decided to go for broke and go head-to-head with the Kingdom of Prussia, maybe they wouldn’t have to pay anything. If the Kingdom of Prussia ran out of money, they would naturally retreat.”
